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Engine oil consumption in Russia to rise modestly by 2024 — automotive market research

CIS BASE OILS AND LUBRICANTS

Engine oil consumption in Russia to rise modestly by 2024 — automotive market research

According to Russian automotive market research (RAMR), the country’s passenger car motor oil consumption will rise modestly to almost 360,000 metric tons per year in 2024 from 339,000 tons per year in 2019, Lubes’n’Graces reports.

RAMR expects that engine oil consumption by light commercial vehicles and heavy-duty trucks will rise as well. The former to more than 151,000 t/y in 2024 from 142,000 t/y in 2019, and the latter to 321,000 t/y from 297,000 t/y. By 2024, engine oil consumption for buses will rise to almost 27,000 t/y from 23,000 t/y.

Russia’s overall vehicle fleet is growing at 1% annually to 47 million units in 2024 from 44.2 million in 2019. Growth is slower in the light commercial vehicle and heavy-duty truck segments.

The heavy-duty truck fleet is expected to rise to around 3.8 million units in 2024 from 3.5 million in 2019, while light commercial vehicles will reach 4.7 million units by 2024, up from 4.4 million in 2019.

RAMR also expects that the bus segment will grow to 470,000 units in 2024 from 400,000 in 2019.

Yet, RAMR found that 57% of passenger cars are older than 11 years, while 43% is one to 10 years, with only 18.6% of all passenger cars newer than five years. In the light commercial vehicle segment, almost 65% of vehicles are 11 years and older, while a little more than 35% are one to 10 years, with only 14.2% younger than five years. The average age of Russian passenger cars and light commercial vehicles was more than 13 years in 2018, compared with nine years in Western Europe.

According to the article, Autostat, a consultancy that specializes in Russian and ex-Soviet states’ automotive sectors, found that the heavy-duty market in the country is static, with 76% of vehicles older than 11 years. Naturally, heavy-duty motor oil consumption depends on the type, application, and the conditions in which the vehicles are used.

Russian marketers dominate the country’s heavy-duty motor oil market, and the age composition of the fleet is obsolete. More than 50 percent of the active fleet is over 20 years old.

Viktor Pushkarev, deputy head of Autostat’s analytics department

Autostat found that the top-three Russian manufacturers are Kamaz, Gaz, and Zil and together held 60% of the total heavy-duty vehicle fleet in 2018.

Autostat also found that 8% of the Russian truck fleet has capacity of more than 35 liters of oil per crankcase, 39% of the fleet has capacity of 20 to 35 liters, 13% has capacity of 10 to 20 and 26% has capacity of 10 liters, with other capacities accounting for the remaining 14%. This implies that 18-ton trucks account for the largest demand segment.

The average price of the most commonly used viscosity grade motor oil in Russia’s heavy-duty segment, an SAE 15W-40, ranges from $1.66 per liter sold by Gazprom Neft to $2.59 sold by ExxonMobil.

In general, Russia’s automotive market is following mature market trends in the West and Asia in the pursuit of vehicle efficiency and reducing environmental impact, similarly encouraged by government regulation, reported RAMR.

The consultancy expects that commercial vehicles will be converted from liquid fuels to natural gas engines and more electric buses and taxis as a way to fight chronic air pollution and traffic congestion in Moscow and other large Russian cities.