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Aurora expects the European Hydrogen Bank auction to support 540 MW of renewable hydrogen projects in Europe


Aurora expects the European Hydrogen Bank auction to support 540 MW of renewable hydrogen projects in Europe

Renewable hydrogen faces stiff competition from fossil fuels. To make it economically viable, subsidies are required. - Aurora

In 2023, Denmark and the UK held their first renewable hydrogen auctions. The Danish auction resulted in a fixed premium support with a price ceiling of 1.2€/kg, while the UK’s auction (HAR1) recently announced a strike price of 11.1€/kg under the same fixed premium support. The difference in clearing price can be attributed to Denmark’s lower power prices and lower grid carbon intensity, allowing simpler and cheaper power procurement strategies while still meeting the low carbon compliance regulations.  

The EU Commission also launched its first Europe-wide H2 auction with a fixed premium per kilogram of hydrogen produced to bridge the gap between production costs and the price consumers are currently willing to pay. The auction has an initial budget of €800 million, with a bid cap of 4.5 €/kg.  

Aurora Energy Research analysed projects from its electrolyser database to understand potential outcomes for the European Hydrogen Bank auction. Aurora expects the auction to support 540 MW of renewable hydrogen projects across Norway, Spain, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands. However, uncertainties around the emerging hydrogen market result in a wide range of bidding behaviour. On the one hand, prices could undergo an upward pressure caused by baseload hydrogen supply with higher project costs and lower risk appetite. Contrarily, prices could be brought down due to higher offtake prices and the participation of already profitable projects. 

To learn more about how we at Aurora can help you tackle the hydrogen market, contact Alex - alex.hutcheson@auroraer.com

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