The growth rate of world demand for petrochemical raw materials will decrease from the current 2.7% per year to 1.8% in the coming years, said Denis Borisov, head of the EY energy center, at the CIS Petrochemicals conference.
In 2017, the petrochemical industry consumed about 485 million tons of raw materials, of which 66 million tons were ethane, 130 million tons – LPG, 289 million tons per naphtha. By 2030, the demand for raw materials will increase to 613 million tons, and the share of ethane will increase from 14 to 19%, the share of naphtha and LPG, by contrast, will decrease by 5 and 1%, respectively.
According to the EY, about 40% of the pyrolysis capacity increase with the use of ethane and LPG can be in the USA, 30% in the Middle East, 20% in the CIS countries. In this case, the APR will have only 6%. The total investment in the construction of such processing complexes is estimated at $ 15.5 billion.
In Russia, naphtha dominates in the structure of demand for raw materials for pyrolysis (50%), but its share is expected to gradually decrease to 46% by 2035 due to an increase in the use of ethane (from 12 to 18%). The volume of extraction of ethane fraction in Russia will grow by an average of 2% per year until 2035.